created: 1242822093|%e %B %Y, %H:%M
TAGS: ipv6 piracy progress

A prediction of how and when IPv6 will become widely used.

This is what I predict will drive IPv6: the desire by the "criminal majority" to create invisible and untraceable file sharing networks. Efforts to fight copyright infringers depend on the IP address of the person sharing (uploading) files. IPv4 addresses are limited, and easy to trace to at least an ISP, if not an end user. This lets the content industry push for "3-strikes" legislation, as they are doing around the world.

As in any arms race, it's not over just because one side scores a hit, and history tells us that the content industry is typically responsible for technological innovation, through their clumsy lobbying efforts to regulate the Internet into behavior that would protect their distribution channels.

So the question is not whether the file sharers will discover ways to continue their illicit fun and games, but how.

And the answer is, IMO, encrypted Tor networks that emulate IPv6 networks, running over a physical IPv4 network. The real world won't go to IPv4 for a long time, the inertia is almost unmoveable. But emulation is an easy way to run a second real world inside the real real one. So IPv6 will be emulated, and will be pushed by brilliant minds who seriously just want to be able to download the latest episode of Lost.

And thus my prediction: IPv6 will struggle to make any inroads into the Internet as we know it today but it will get into software stacks, into Linux, into browsers, and eventually into network fabric, through the file sharing community and through the actions of the content industry.

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